Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) — Fundamental Analysis & Key Financial Ratios

Kaplio's reading: Smurfit Westrock plc

Updated on October 1, 2026 · accounts published on July 29, 2026

Reading of October 1, 2026: A fast-growing cyclical business with thin margins and a stretched balance sheet

Smurfit Westrock trades at a P/E of 46.9× over the last 12 months, 172 % above its sector median, while its free cash flow yield is 8.1 %.

• Is Smurfit Westrock expensive or cheap? Its P/E of 46.9× over the last 12 months is 172 % above the 17.2× sector median, but its free cash flow yield is 8.1 %.
• How is the business doing? Revenue grew 53 % over the last 12 months, yet the 5.5 % operating margin trails the 9.3 % average of 2014-2025.
• How strong is the balance sheet? Net debt is 3.5× EBITDA in fiscal 2025, above the 3.0× healthy ceiling for cyclicals, and the Altman Z of 1.3 signals danger.
• What to expect from the next earnings? Analysts expect EPS of $0.60 on November 4, 2026, after a $0.35 miss in July; it beat in only 1 of the last 8 quarters.

Is Smurfit Westrock expensive or cheap?

Over the last 12 months Smurfit Westrock trades at a P/E of 46.9×. That is 172 % above the 17.2× median of 292 sector peers and well above its own five-year average of 26.4×. Peter Lynch warned that cyclicals look expensive when they are cheap. A P/E this high can reflect earnings depressed by the cycle, which may be an opportunity, or costly optimism. Other measures look calmer: EV/EBITDA is 8.6×, P/B is 1.3× and the free cash flow yield is 8.1 %. EV/sales of 1.1× in fiscal 2025 sits below its ten-year average of 1.3×. The shares are 14 % below their 52-week high of $51.84.

How is the business doing?

Growth is strong: over the last 12 months revenue rose 53 % and EPS rose 68 %. Profitability has lagged. The operating margin of 5.5 % trails the 7.1 % of fiscal 2025 and the 9.3 % average of 2014-2025, and the net margin is just 1.6 %. ROIC of 3.0 % sits 6.3 points below the 9.3 % sector median and has topped 10 % in only 2 of the last 10 years. Cyclicals are judged on five-year averages because single years swing with the cycle. The 9.1 % average operating margin clears the 8 % bar and inventory turnover of 5.8× beats 4×. The 6.6 % average ROIC misses the 12 % threshold.

How strong is the balance sheet?

Cyclical companies are judged on whether they can survive the bad years, so debt and liquidity weigh heavily. Net debt of $30.59 per share in fiscal 2025 equals 69 % of the current share price, and net debt to EBITDA of 3.5× exceeds the 3.0× healthy limit. The Altman Z of 1.3 over the last 12 months sits in the danger zone below 1.81, and the current ratio of 1.45 falls just short of 1.5. The dividend yields 3.9 % over the last 12 months and has risen for 3 consecutive years. In fiscal 2025, though, the payout was 129 % of earnings, so profits did not cover it.

What to expect from the next earnings?

All 11 analysts covering Smurfit Westrock rate it a buy, with none at hold or sell. That conviction contrasts with the record: the company beat EPS estimates in only 1 of the last 8 quarters. On July 29, 2026 it reported $0.35 against $0.40 expected, a 13.5 % miss. For the quarter due on November 4, 2026, the consensus is $0.60. The 2026 EPS estimate from 7 analysts has stayed at $2.22 over the last 16 days, and revenue estimates are also stable. The test is whether margins recover enough to bring those figures within reach.

How this was prepared: the data comes from companies' official filings, collected by a professional provider, and from Kaplio's analysis engine (trailing-12-month ratios, 10 years of history and sector medians computed across US-listed companies). The text is written from that data alone, every figure is checked against it before publication, and it is reviewed when the company reports results. This is not investment advice.