Introdução
Financial modeling projects future financial statements based on assumptions. It is essential for valuation, M&A, investment decisions. You will build a simplified 3-statement model.
Explicação
3 Statement Model: 1. Income Statement (P&L) 2. Balance Sheet 3. Cash Flow Statement These 3 are interconnected. Changes in one impact the others. The model typically projects 5-10 years ahead.
Fórmula
Model Flow: 1. Project Income (growth rate) 2. Apply historical margins → EBITDA, EBIT, Net Income 3. Project Balance: assets, liabilities, equity 4. Cash Flow: connect P&L and Balance Sheet 5. Value: DCF, multiples, etc.
Exemplo
Simplified Model - Startup SaaS: Assumptions: - 2024 Revenue: $100M - Growth: 30% annually - Gross Margin: 75% - EBITDA Margin: 15% (expands 2% annually) - CapEx: 5% of income - Tax Rate: 21% Projections: | Year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |-----|------|------|------|------| | Revenue | $100M | $130M | $169M | $220M | | Gross Profit | $75M | $98M | $127M | $165M | | EBITDA | $15M | $22M | $32M | $46M | | EBITDA Margin | 15% | 17% | 19% | 21% | | Net Income | $10M | $15M | $22M | $32M | | Free Cash Flow | $8M | $13M | $19M | $28M | Rating (EV/Revenue 8×): - 2027 Revenue: $220M × 8 = $1.76B valuation
Como interpretar
Practical Modeling: Key Assumptions: 1. Revenue Growth: Use history, adjust by sector, competition, saturation 2. Margins: Historical + expected improvements (economies of scale) 3. CapEx: Maintenance (5% revenue) vs expansion (10-15%) 4. Working Capital: DSO, DIO, DPO 5. Tax Rate: Historical effective rate Sensitivity: Vary assumptions to see impact: - Growth 25% vs 35%: rating changes ±30% - EBITDA margin 13% vs 17%: valuation changes ±20% Common Errors: - Being too optimistic (hockey stick projections) - Ignore cyclicality - Do not verify that the 3 statements connect - Extrapolate a straight line without considering ripening
Ideias-chave
- 3 statement model: P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow
- Typically projects 5-10 years
- Key assumptions: growth, margins, CapEx, tax
- Do sensitivity analysis (vary assumptions)
- Avoid hockey stick projections (too optimistic)
- Verify that the 3 statements connect correctly