Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) — Fundamental Analysis & Key Financial Ratios

Kaplio's reading: Expand Energy Corporation

Updated on October 31, 2026 · accounts published on October 27, 2026

A cyclical energy business back to solid profits, with modest debt and a well-covered dividend

Expand Energy trades at a P/E of 7.8 over the last 12 months, 55 % below its sector median of 17.3, with an 8.5 % free cash flow yield.

• Is Expand Energy expensive or cheap? Its P/E of 7.8 is 55 % below the energy sector median of 17.3, yet above its own four-year average of 5.6.
• How is the business doing? Revenue grew 176 % over the last 12 months and the operating margin reached 25 %, against a 2014-2025 average of −21 %.
• How strong is the balance sheet? Net debt was 0.8× EBITDA in fiscal 2025 and free cash flow covered the dividend 2.4 times.
• What to expect from the next earnings? On February 16, 2027 analysts expect EPS of $2.14; Expand Energy beat estimates in 7 of its last 8 quarters.
• Does it generate cash through the whole cycle and cover the dividend? Free cash flow was positive in 6 of the last 10 fiscal years (2016-2025), short of the 8 in 10 that marks cycle discipline in energy.

Is Expand Energy expensive or cheap?

Over the last 12 months Expand Energy trades at a P/E of 7.8, 55 % below the median of 17.3 across 140 energy companies. Its own history gives a mixed picture. The P/E sits above its four-year average of 5.6. In a cyclical company, that can mean earnings held down by the cycle with room to recover, or optimism already priced in. EV/EBITDA of 3.9× is below its eight-year average of 5.7×. The stock is down 8 % over the last 12 months and sits 25 % below its 52-week high of $122.89.

How is the business doing?

Over the last 12 months revenue rose 176 % and EPS rose 266 %. That lifted the operating margin to 25 %, above the 18 % of fiscal 2025 and far from the −21 % average of 2014-2025. Returns improved too: ROIC of 10.3 % is 2.7 points above the sector median of 7.5 %, and the 2021-2025 average of 15.7 % clears the 10 % bar used in energy. The longer record is less steady. ROIC topped 10 % in only 3 of the last 10 fiscal years and fell as low as −43.8 % in 2016, so today's figures reflect a good stretch of the cycle rather than a constant.

How strong is the balance sheet?

Net debt stood at $18.27 per share in fiscal 2025. That equals 20 % of the current share price and 0.8× EBITDA, well under the 2.0× ceiling considered healthy in energy. Over the last 12 months debt to equity is 0.24 and the Piotroski score is 8 out of 9, which points to improving fundamentals. Two figures deserve watching. A current ratio of 0.90 means short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets, and an Altman Z of 2.5 sits in the grey zone. The dividend yields 2.5 % and took 42 % of fiscal 2025 earnings.

What to expect from the next earnings?

On October 27, 2026 Expand Energy reported EPS of $1.46 against $1.29 expected, a 13 % beat, and it has topped estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters. For the next report, due February 16, 2027, analysts expect EPS of $2.14. Over the last 30 days the 2026 EPS consensus edged up 0.6 %, from $8.60 to $8.66 across 6 analysts, while the revenue consensus slipped 0.9 %. Of the 22 analysts covering the company, 16 recommend buying, 5 holding and none selling. Expectations lean positive, so a miss would stand out.

Does it generate cash through the whole cycle and cover the dividend?

Oil and gas companies are cyclical: profits depend on commodity prices, so one strong year says little. That is why the sector is judged on cash generated across the whole cycle and on whether the dividend can survive a downturn. Expand Energy passes the near-term tests. Its free cash flow yield over the last 12 months is 8.5 %, just above the 8 % bar, and free cash flow covered the dividend 2.4× in fiscal 2025, double the 1.2× considered healthy. It fails two others: free cash flow was positive in only 6 of 10 years, and capex took 24 % of fiscal 2025 revenue, above the healthy range of 10 % to 20 %.

How this was prepared: the data comes from companies' official filings, collected by a professional provider, and from Kaplio's analysis engine (trailing-12-month ratios, 10 years of history and sector medians computed across US-listed companies). The text is written from that data alone, every figure is checked against it before publication, and it is reviewed when the company reports results. This is not investment advice.