Wall Street analyst estimates for Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC): consensus price target, buy/hold/sell recommendations and forecasts for revenue and EPS for the upcoming fiscal years.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. specializes in the extraction and international distribution of coking coal, a critical raw material for steel production. The firm operates a pair of underground mines situated in Alabama. Its primary client base consists of blast furnace steel producers, predominantly located across Europe, South America, and Asia. In addition to coal, the company also sells natural gas, which is recovered as a byproduct of its mining activities.
Revenue and EPS estimates
| Fiscal year | Revenue (average) | Revenue (low – high) | EPS (average) | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028E | $2.4B | $2.1B – $2.5B | $10.58 | 6 |
Figures in USD · consensus as of November 2, 2026
Analyst Consensus
| Strong Buy | 0 |
| Buy | 8 |
| Hold | 15 |
| Sell | 1 |
| Strong Sell | 0 |
| Total analysts | 24 |
| Avg rating (−2 sell to +2 buy) | 0.29 |
Recent Earnings Surprises
| Date | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | vs Est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | $1.55 | ||
| 2026-08-05 | $1.65 | $1.40 | +17.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.37 | $1.41 | -2.8% |
| 2026-02-12 | $0.44 | $0.62 | -29.0% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.70 | $-0.51 | +236.3% |
| 2025-08-06 | $0.11 | $-0.28 | +139.3% |
| 2025-04-30 | $-0.16 | $-0.05 | -220.0% |
| 2025-02-13 | $0.15 | $0.49 | -69.4% |
Valuation Ratios
| P/E Ratio | 20.67 |
| Price / Book | 1.98 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.37% |
Income Statement (10y)
| Year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $369.0M | $1.17B | $1.38B | $1.27B | $782.7M | $1.06B | $1.74B | $1.68B | $1.53B | $1.31B |
| Cost of Revenue | $423.6M | $621.0M | $726.8M | $847.9M | $777.0M | $724.6M | $852.9M | $1.08B | $1.21B | $1.20B |
| Gross Profit | -$54.6M | $548.1M | $651.2M | $420.4M | $5.7M | $334.6M | $885.8M | $601.5M | $318.5M | $111.2M |
| Research & Development | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Selling, General & Admin | $29.5M | $36.5M | $36.6M | $37.0M | $32.9M | $35.6M | $48.8M | $51.8M | $63.1M | $65.7M |
| Operating Expenses | $29.5M | $111.9M | $133.8M | $37.0M | $32.9M | $90.9M | $84.4M | $60.1M | $63.6M | $65.7M |
| Operating Income | -$84.1M | $423.4M | $508.3M | $383.4M | -$27.1M | $243.8M | $801.4M | $541.4M | $254.9M | $45.6M |
| EBITDA | -$12.8M | $498.8M | $611.9M | $493.8M | $94.5M | $377.9M | $929.8M | $696.7M | $447.4M | $252.8M |
| Interest Expense | 0 | $6.9M | $37.3M | $29.3M | $32.3M | $36.5M | $31.4M | $18.0M | $4.3M | $9.7M |
| Pre-tax Income | -$111.5M | $416.5M | $471.0M | $367.1M | -$55.9M | $200.0M | $783.1M | $551.4M | $283.7M | $54.4M |
| Income Tax | $36,000 | -$38.6M | -$225.8M | $65.4M | -$20.1M | $49.1M | $141.8M | $72.8M | $33.1M | -$2.6M |
| Net Income | -$111.5M | $455.0M | $696.8M | $301.7M | -$35.8M | $150.9M | $641.3M | $478.6M | $250.6M | $57.0M |
| EPS | -$2.12 | $8.62 | $13.19 | $5.87 | -$0.70 | $2.94 | $12.42 | $9.21 | $4.79 | $1.08 |
| EPS (Diluted) | -$2.12 | $8.62 | $13.17 | $5.86 | -$0.70 | $2.93 | $12.40 | $9.20 | $4.79 | $1.08 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted) | 52.7 M | 52.8 M | 52.9 M | 51.5 M | 51.2 M | 51.4 M | 51.7 M | 52.0 M | 52.3 M | 52.6 M |
Price
| Price | $85.97 (closing price, October 30, 2026) |
| Market Cap | $4.5B |
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Country | US |
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