Wall Street analyst estimates for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): consensus price target, buy/hold/sell recommendations and forecasts for revenue and EPS for the upcoming fiscal years.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions.
Consensus price target
$444.30 (-0 % vs price $444.73)
between $321.00 and $560.00 · 16 targets published in the last quarter
Closing price, Oct 30
A twelve-month target is not a fair value: compare it with the range in the Valuation tab.
Revenue and EPS estimates
| Fiscal year | Revenue (average) | Revenue (low – high) | EPS (average) | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | $181B | $158B – $194B | $65.47 | 10 |
| 2027E | $169B | $114B – $202B | $57.74 | 10 |
| 2028E | $159B | $135B – $207B | $28.16 | 5 |
Figures in USD · consensus as of November 2, 2026
Analyst Consensus
| Strong Buy | 0 |
| Buy | 25 |
| Hold | 8 |
| Sell | 0 |
| Strong Sell | 0 |
| Total analysts | 33 |
| Avg rating (−2 sell to +2 buy) | 0.76 |
Recent Earnings Surprises
| Date | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | vs Est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | $25.37 | ||
| 2026-08-04 | $17.73 | $14.27 | +24.2% |
| 2026-05-05 | $1.65 | $0.74 | +123.3% |
| 2026-02-03 | $4.07 | $2.72 | +49.6% |
| 2025-11-04 | $3.01 | $3.15 | -4.4% |
| 2025-08-05 | $3.96 | $3.24 | +22.2% |
| 2025-05-06 | $-0.24 | $-0.54 | +55.7% |
| 2025-02-04 | $0.77 | $0.02 | +3401.6% |
Valuation Ratios
| P/E Ratio | 15.31 |
| Price / Book | 6.78 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.90% |
Income Statement (10y)
| Year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $63.34B | $74.73B | $86.09B | $111.15B | $69.78B | $119.98B | $177.45B | $148.38B | $138.86B | $132.70B |
| Cost of Revenue | $58.82B | $69.20B | $79.22B | $102.45B | $69.11B | $113.37B | $154.89B | $131.87B | $129.58B | $122.70B |
| Gross Profit | $4.52B | $5.53B | $6.87B | $8.70B | $671.0M | $6.61B | $22.57B | $16.51B | $9.29B | $10.00B |
| Research & Development | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Selling, General & Admin | $1.60B | $1.69B | $2.28B | $3.19B | $2.71B | $2.54B | $2.77B | $3.04B | $3.22B | $3.35B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.14B | $1.51B | $2.18B | $4.23B | $12.92B | $2.31B | $3.60B | $3.92B | $4.04B | $4.23B |
| Operating Income | $2.39B | $4.02B | $4.69B | $4.46B | -$12.25B | $4.30B | $18.97B | $12.59B | $5.25B | $5.77B |
| EBITDA | $4.36B | $6.08B | $6.81B | $7.69B | -$8.90B | $7.45B | $24.88B | $18.56B | $10.60B | $11.68B |
| Interest Expense | $562.0M | $652.0M | $973.0M | $1.26B | $1.37B | $1.30B | $1.22B | $1.28B | $1.34B | $1.41B |
| Pre-tax Income | $1.82B | $3.34B | $3.70B | $3.23B | -$13.61B | $2.82B | $20.47B | $13.99B | $5.96B | $7.01B |
| Income Tax | $609.0M | -$460.0M | $764.0M | $784.0M | -$2.43B | $264.0M | $4.49B | $2.82B | $890.0M | $1.14B |
| Net Income | $1.17B | $3.43B | $2.78B | $2.64B | -$9.83B | $9.74B | $14.52B | $9.68B | $3.44B | $4.05B |
| EPS | $2.22 | $6.77 | $5.36 | $4.00 | -$15.14 | $2.71 | $28.34 | $23.76 | $10.12 | $13.27 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.21 | $6.70 | $5.28 | $3.97 | -$15.14 | $2.69 | $28.12 | $23.65 | $10.09 | $13.27 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted) | 530.8 M | 512.0 M | 526.0 M | 664.0 M | 649.0 M | 638.0 M | 516.0 M | 409.0 M | 341.0 M | 305.0 M |
Price
| Price | $444.73 (closing price, October 30, 2026) |
| Market Cap | $124.9B |
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Country | US |
Related companies: VLO · PSX · DINO · PBF
Explore sector: Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
More sections of MPC: Overview · Financials · Valuation · Statistics · Technical · Ownership · News · Events
Discover more: Weekly Radar: the S&P 500 through the Buffett and Lynch methods · Companies that pass the Buffett method · Companies that pass the Lynch method · Stocks that pass Graham's defensive investor test today · Investment Academy — learn to analyze stocks