Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) — Fundamental Analysis & Key Financial Ratios

Kaplio overview: Mullen Group Ltd.

Market cap CAD 3B · 52 weeks 14 CAD – 32 CAD (10% below the high) · P/E 22.8× · Dividend 2.9% · 5 years rising · Next earnings February 10, 2027 · expected EPS 0.36 CAD · Closing price, Nov 3 · accounts published Oct 22.

• Valuation: TTM P/E 22.8× (expensive).
• Business: ROIC 7% (weak).
• Balance sheet: Net debt/EBITDA 2.8× (passes, near the threshold).
• Earnings: 4 of 8 (uneven).

Where would it trade at its usual multiples?

At the decade median (16.4×) 21 CAD (-28%); at its sector median (25.9×) 33 CAD (+13%). Implied price from applying the reference multiples to today's earnings (or book value, or FFO) per share. Not a fair value: it is where the stock would trade at its usual multiples.

What matters in industrials: 6 of 10 pass

• Operating margin 8.4%, fails.
• ROIC 6.8%, fails.
• P/E vs own 10y history 22.8×, fails.
• Cycle-adjusted EV/EBITDA 9.9×, fails.
• 5y revenue growth 15.9%, passes.
• FCF conversion 173.6%, passes.
• Net debt / EBITDA 2.8×, passes, near the threshold.
• Capex / Revenue 4.5%, passes.
• Altman Z-Score 1.9, passes.
• Piotroski F-Score 5 of 9, passes.

Against its peers (reference peers) — Mullen Group Ltd.: P/E 22.8×; EV/EBITDA 9.9×; ROIC 6.8%; CAD 2.8B. ArcBest Corp (P/E 106×; EV/EBITDA 17.3×; ROIC 2.0%; $3.0B), RXO, Inc. (P/E —; EV/EBITDA 123×; ROIC -0.4%; $4.7B), Schneider National, Inc. (P/E 36.5×; EV/EBITDA 8.1×; ROIC 3.6%; $5.2B).

Expensive or cheap against its last ten years?

P/E at each close: today 22.8× · median 16.4× · minimum 5.9× · maximum 38.5× · cheap below 11.8× · expensive above 26.3×. It has been cheaper than today 72% of the time over its last ten years.

Dividend

tight · Yield (last 12 months) 2.9% · 0.84 CAD per share in 2025 · Years raising it 5 · 5-year growth +23% a year · Free cash flow coverage 2.7× (last three fiscal years) · With 1,000 CAD invested today you'd collect 28.80 CAD a year (2.40 CAD a month).