Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) — Fundamental Analysis & Key Financial Ratios

Kaplio overview: Murphy USA Inc.

Market cap $10B · 52 weeks $357 – $623 (13 % below the high) · P/E 16.4× · 2027 expected P/E 17.8× · Dividend 0.47 % · 5 years rising · Next earnings February 3, 2027 · expected EPS $7.77 · Closing price, Oct 29 · accounts published Oct 28.

• Valuation: P/E 16.4× (fairly priced).
• Business: 5-year ROIC 16.9 % (solid).
• Balance sheet: Net debt/EBITDA 3.2× (watch).
• Earnings: 7 of 8 (on track).

What would it be worth at its usual multiples?

At the decade median (14.5×) $476 (-12 %); at its sector median (17.9×) $586 (+9 %). Implied price from applying the reference multiples to today's earnings (or book value, or FFO) per share. Not a fair value: it is where the stock would trade at its usual multiples.

What matters in consumer cyclicals: 4 of 8 pass

• 5y avg operating margin 3.8 %, fails.
• Current Ratio 0.87, fails.
• EV/Sales vs history 0.6×, fails.
• Net debt / EBITDA 3.2×, borderline.
• Inventory turnover 44.6×, passes.
• 5y avg ROIC 16.9 %, passes.
• Altman Z-Score 6.9, passes.
• P/E read in reverse (cyclicals) 16.4×, passes.

Against its peers (reference peers) — Murphy USA Inc.: P/E 16.4×; EV/EBITDA 9.8×; ROIC 18.6 %; $9.9B. Casey's General Stores, Inc. (P/E 32.6×; EV/EBITDA 18.7×; ROIC 10.7 %; $25.0B), Delek US Holdings, Inc. (P/E 19.8×; EV/EBITDA 6.8×; ROIC 15.0 %; $4.3B), Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (P/E 4.4×; EV/EBITDA 3.6×; ROIC 33.3 %; $3.8B).

Expensive or cheap against its last ten years?

P/E at each close: today 16.4× · median 14.5× · minimum 8.5× · maximum 21.3× · cheap below 12.6× · expensive above 17.6×. It has been cheaper than today 69% of the time over its last ten years.

Dividend

solid · Yield 0.47 % ($2.15 per share in 2025) · Years raising it ≥ 5 · paying since 2020 · 5-year growth +55 % a year · Free cash flow coverage 10.8× · With $1,000 invested today you'd collect $4.70 a year ($0.39 a month).