The Progressive Corporation (PGR) — Fundamental Analysis & Key Financial Ratios

Kaplio's reading: The Progressive Corporation

Updated on October 15, 2026 · accounts published on October 14, 2026

Reading of October 14, 2026: A fast-growing, highly profitable insurer carrying heavy leverage after a weak quarter

Progressive trades at a P/E of 10.7× over the last 12 months, 43 % below its ten-year median of 18.8× and 20 % under its sector median of 13.3×.

• Is Progressive expensive or cheap? Its P/E of 10.7× is 43 % below its ten-year median of 18.8×; it traded lower only 14 % of the last decade.
• How is the business doing? Revenue grew 16 % and EPS 34 % over the last 12 months, with a 16 % operating margin against a 10 % 2014-2025 average.
• Does Progressive underwrite with discipline and build book value? Book value per share grew 12 % a year over fiscal 2020-2025, beating the 8 % healthy mark for insurers.
• How strong is the balance sheet? Debt to equity is 1.71 over the last 12 months, well above the 0.3 considered prudent for an insurer.
• What to expect from the next earnings? Next results arrive January 27, 2027, with analysts expecting EPS of $4.08 after a 75 % miss on October 14, 2026.

Is Progressive expensive or cheap?

For an insurer, price to book comes first. Progressive trades at 25.4× book value over the last 12 months, far above the 2.0× that a 46 % ROE would justify in the sector and beyond the 2.5× borderline. On earnings the picture flips: a P/E of 10.7× sits 43 % below its ten-year median of 18.8× and 20 % below the 13.3× sector median, near the decade low of 9.3×. The stock is down 5 % over 12 months and 9 % below its 52-week high of $240.40. Earnings look undemanding; book value does not.

How is the business doing?

Progressive is growing fast and keeping more of each dollar of sales. Revenue rose 16 % over the last 12 months while EPS climbed 34 %, so profits are outpacing the top line. The operating margin of 16 % in fiscal 2025 compares with a 10 % average over the twelve fiscal years 2014-2025, putting the latest year well above its long-run norm. Net margin of 13 % and ROE of 46 % over the last 12 months are very high returns for an insurer. The open question is whether this is a peak, since the five-year average margin is lower.

Does Progressive underwrite with discipline and build book value?

Insurers earn money twice: by underwriting policies at a profit and by investing the float, the premiums held before claims are paid. That is why the sector is judged on book value growth and underwriting margins rather than on sales alone. Progressive's book value per share compounded at 12 % a year over fiscal 2020-2025, comfortably above the 8 % considered healthy. Underwriting is less clear: the operating margin averaged 9.8 % over fiscal 2021-2025, just under the 10 % healthy threshold, which leaves it borderline. The recent 16 % margin would need to hold to lift that average.

How strong is the balance sheet?

Leverage is the weak spot. Debt to equity of 1.71 over the last 12 months is more than five times the 0.3 ceiling considered prudent in insurance, a sector where balance sheets need room to absorb large claims. Shareholder returns look generous: the dividend yield is 6.5 % over the last 12 months, while the payout was only 25 % of fiscal 2025 earnings, so the payment is well covered by profits. The dividend has risen for 3 consecutive fiscal years through 2025, far from the 10-year streak that marks an aristocrat in this sector.

What to expect from the next earnings?

The latest report was a sharp disappointment. On October 14, 2026, Progressive posted EPS of $1.08 against $4.35 expected, a 75 % shortfall and the largest surprise over the last 8 quarters, in which it beat estimates only 4 times. Analysts have not turned more cautious: the 2026 EPS consensus rose 1.9 % in the last 30 days, from $17.94 to $18.29 across 15 analysts, while revenue estimates barely moved. Of 42 analysts, 16 rate it a buy, 22 a hold and 4 a sell. The January report will show whether the miss was a one-off.

How this was prepared: the data comes from companies' official filings, collected by a professional provider, and from Kaplio's analysis engine (trailing-12-month ratios, 10 years of history and sector medians computed across US-listed companies). The text is written from that data alone, every figure is checked against it before publication, and it is reviewed when the company reports results. This is not investment advice.