Wall Street analyst estimates for The Progressive Corporation (PGR): consensus price target, buy/hold/sell recommendations and forecasts for revenue and EPS for the upcoming fiscal years.
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property.
Consensus price target
$223.23 (-3 % vs price $231.28)
between $196.00 and $245.00 · 12 targets published in the last quarter
Closing price, Oct 30
A twelve-month target is not a fair value: compare it with the range in the Valuation tab.
Revenue and EPS estimates
| Fiscal year | Revenue (average) | Revenue (low – high) | EPS (average) | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | $87.9B | $87.1B – $89.7B | $18.38 | 15 |
| 2027E | $91.6B | $89.3B – $96.4B | $16.20 | 16 |
| 2028E | $96.7B | $90.3B – $102B | $16.04 | 10 |
Figures in USD · consensus as of November 1, 2026
Analyst Consensus
| Strong Buy | 0 |
| Buy | 16 |
| Hold | 22 |
| Sell | 4 |
| Strong Sell | 0 |
| Total analysts | 42 |
| Avg rating (−2 sell to +2 buy) | 0.29 |
Recent Earnings Surprises
| Date | EPS Actual | EPS Est. | vs Est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-27 | $4.02 | ||
| 2026-10-14 | $4.37 | $4.35 | +0.5% |
| 2026-07-15 | $4.85 | $4.64 | +4.5% |
| 2026-04-15 | $4.81 | $4.85 | -0.8% |
| 2026-01-28 | $4.67 | $4.44 | +5.2% |
| 2025-10-15 | $4.05 | $4.99 | -18.8% |
| 2025-07-16 | $4.88 | $4.43 | +10.2% |
| 2025-04-16 | $4.65 | $4.79 | -2.9% |
Valuation Ratios
| P/E Ratio | 11.65 |
| Price / Book | 3.90 |
| Dividend Yield | 6.01% |
Income Statement (10y)
| Year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.42B | $26.82B | $31.95B | $39.00B | $42.64B | $47.68B | $49.59B | $62.08B | $75.34B | $87.64B |
| Cost of Revenue | $18.74B | $20.93B | $24.29B | $28.49B | $28.39B | $37.34B | $42.04B | $50.32B | $54.44B | $61.81B |
| Gross Profit | $4.67B | $5.88B | $7.66B | $10.50B | $14.24B | $10.34B | $7.55B | $11.76B | $20.90B | $25.83B |
| Research & Development | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Selling, General & Admin | $92.0M | $109.5M | $134.1M | $178.9M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Operating Expenses | $3.20B | $3.74B | $4.50B | $5.34B | $7.07B | $6.13B | $6.62B | $6.86B | $10.19B | $11.61B |
| Operating Income | $1.47B | $2.14B | $3.16B | $5.16B | $7.17B | $4.21B | $922.0M | $4.90B | $10.71B | $14.22B |
| EBITDA | $1.81B | $2.53B | $3.59B | $5.66B | $7.72B | $4.77B | $1.47B | $5.46B | $11.28B | $14.81B |
| Interest Expense | $140.9M | $153.1M | $166.5M | $189.7M | $217.0M | $218.6M | $244.0M | $268.0M | $279.0M | $278.0M |
| Pre-tax Income | $1.47B | $2.14B | $3.16B | $5.16B | $7.17B | $4.21B | $922.0M | $4.90B | $10.71B | $14.22B |
| Income Tax | $413.5M | $540.8M | $542.6M | $1.18B | $1.47B | $859.1M | $200.0M | $1.00B | $2.23B | $2.92B |
| Net Income | $1.03B | $1.59B | $2.62B | $3.97B | $5.70B | $3.35B | $722.0M | $3.90B | $8.48B | $11.31B |
| EPS | $1.77 | $2.74 | $4.49 | $6.75 | $9.71 | $5.69 | $1.19 | $6.61 | $14.45 | $19.29 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.76 | $2.72 | $4.46 | $6.72 | $9.66 | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 |
| Shares Outstanding (Diluted) | 585.0 M | 585.7 M | 586.7 M | 587.2 M | 587.6 M | 587.1 M | 587.1 M | 587.5 M | 587.7 M | 588.2 M |
Price
| Price | $231.28 (closing price, October 30, 2026) |
| Market Cap | $134.4B |
| Exchange | NYSE |
| Country | US |
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Explore sector: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
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